This week has produced some major news for the national and local real estate markets. 

• NAR reported that existing home sales dropped 27% to levels not seen since May of 1995.
• The Commerce Department reported that new home sales dropped 12% to the lowest levels on record.
• Trendgraphix reported a 37% year-to-year decline in closings for all FMLS counties in July.    
• The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported today that only 5,000 new jobs have been created this year and unemployment is expected to remain above 9%.   

Those are some gloomy numbers.  Did you know that the atlanta real estate market is about the same for year-to-date closings as last year?  The market is not really as bad as it may sound.  In fact, the article that was published by the AJC forecasts a major rebound in new jobs for Georgia in the next two years with over 60,000 in 2011 and 78,000 in 2012.  Demand for our real estate will be strong.  We will work through our inventory of foreclosures and short sales.  We will even see a seller’s market in a few years!       

So what does all this really mean?  Where is all this going?  Should consumers be buying now?   Dan has some interesting perspective to share.  Just click on the audio player below to hear the broadcast.

The photography best practices include the use of more advanced equipment and editing techniques to produce amazing results.  We are essentially taking very high-end photography practices and bringing them to the general real estate market.  The document attached shows some examples of these techniques.

Photography Best Practices

Prudential Georgia Realty is also implementing an extensive media and image management platform that automates the creation, distribution and management of photos, virtual tours, narrated videos and more.  We recognize that you only get one shot to make a great first impression for our seller clients.  The use of rich media solutions is a fundamental part of our award-winning Advanced Property Marketing System.  Since implementing this system, Prudential has quickly become the market leader for listings in Metro Atlanta and North Georgia. 

Contact one of our highly trained agents for more details today! 

The April Case-Shiller Index was published on Tuesday, April 27th 2010.  As always, the index reports on data 60 days in arrears.  Therefore, the index reports metro Atlanta home values for February 2010.  So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta? 

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats.  First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market.  This index reflects the averages for metro Atlanta.  Remember, people do not buy houses in America or even in metro Atlanta.  They buy a specific property on a street in a local community.  Real estate is local and every market is different.  Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market.  However, these metrics are a good general indication on what is happening in our market.   

Now for the news….  The February index shows the 6th drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row.  The January index is 105.66 which is 1.29% down from last month.  Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – February 2010 Index

The peak of our market was July of 2007 according to the Case-Shiller index.  The most recent bottom was March of 2009.  In August of 2009, we had seen 5 months of increasing values and were 5.8% above the bottom of March 2009.  Since then, we have slipped and are now only .56% above the March 2009 bottom and still down 22.58% from the peak of July 2007.  We expected to see a slight drop in the February index and may see an additional drop in March.  The spring selling season is very active in March and April with low inventory and significantly increased demand.  This will reflect in a higher Case-Shiller Index as the increases in pending translate to closings.  Therefore, we predict that metro Atlanta home values will probably see a bottom for 2010 in March.  We expect to see positive gains in the spring and continue with slight gains in the summer.  We may see slight declines later this fall and winter but do not expect to test the low point of March 2010.  We expect a slow but sure increase in values for 2010 and beyond.  Remember, you will not know the bottom of the market until it is passed.  

If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index: 

• Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 2.35%
• Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of 3.08
• Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 6.67%
• Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 9.61%
• Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 12.69%
• Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 16.88%
• Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 20.67%
• Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 21.18%
• Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 13.85%

Homes values are essentially the same as the spring of 2001 right now.  Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet.  So where will home values go from here?  The key factors that will impact our home values include the following: 

1. Demand From Buyers (We expect to see improving demand through spring and summer months.)
2. Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability (We expect to see low mortgage rates for an extended period with increases coming in late 2010 and 2011.)     
3. Supply/ Inventory Levels (We expect inventory levels to remain lower than normal.)
4. Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures (We expect to see significant numbers of short sales & foreclosures for the next two years.  However, we do not expect a flood of foreclosures that drives the overall inventory too high.)  

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures.  Right now, home affordability is exceptional.  We still have the combination of low home prices and low mortgage rates.  Many wonderful properties are available below their replacement costs.  This scenario will not last forever.  Rates will go up over time.  Home values will be increasing – slowly but surely.  Yes, we will continue to see some ups and downs along the way, but home values are on the rise.  In 5 or 10 years, many will look back and regret not buying their dream home when they had the chance!     

Check back for our next posts with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!

The February Case-Shiller Index was published on February 28, 2010.  As always, the index reports on data 60 days in arrears.  Therefore, the index reports metro Atlanta home values for December 2009.  So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta? 

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats.  First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market.  Right now, the heavy volumes in the market remain on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures.  The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market.  Second, real estate is local and every market is different.  Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market. 

Now for the news….  The December index shows the 4th drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row.  The new extended and expanded tax credits were not announced until December.  Therefore, many transactions that would have normally closed in December were closed earlier in November to ensure the buyer received the tax credit.  As a result, we expected a more significant drop in home values coming for December.   Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – December 2009 Index

The peak of our market was July of 2007 according to the Case-Shiller index.  The most recent bottom was March of 2009.  In August of 2009, we had seen 5 months of increasing values and were 5.8% above the bottom of March 2009.  Since the, we have slipped and are now 3.28% above the March bottom and still down 19.18% from the peak of July 2007.  We would expect to see some additional drops in the January and February index but do not expect to drop below the March 2009 levels.  The early spring season driven by the expiring tax credits in April will likely drive home values back up prior to the normal seasonal patterns. 

If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index: 

• Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 4.45%
• Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of .92%
• Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 4.53%
• Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 7.50%
• Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 10.75%
• Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 15.10%
• Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 18.62%
• Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 19.14%
• Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 11.62%

Homes values are essentially the same as the summer of 2001 right now.  Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet.  So where will home values go from here?  The key factors that will impact our home value include the following: 

1. Demand From Buyers (We expect to see improving demand through spring driven by the tax credits, great deals and low mortgage rates!)
2. Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability     
3. Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market  (See the blog post on short sales & foreclosures – http://atlrealestatescoop.com/changing-trends-foreclosures-short-sales/)

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures.  It is clearly a great time to buy and we expect many buyers to take full advantage.  We will continue to keep you informed with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!

This audio podcast provides a detailed review of the new changes and some of the considerations for buyers and sellers.  

Just Click on the Audio Podcast to hear the Interview with Melissa Hancock from SunTrust Mortgage

We have also attached a flyer that gives a brief summary of the new changes. If you have additional questions, please contact your Prudential Georgia Realty agent or contact us by leaving a reply at the end of this post.  

Click This Link To Download The Informational Flyer

“The unemployment rate in metro Atlanta is 10.7% and expected to remain in double digits for an extended period.   Everyone knows that it is a fabulous time to buy Atlanta real estate right now.  Prices are at or near bottom, mortgage rates are still historically low and the selection of properties is unprecedented.  The $8000 1^st Time Home Buyer Tax Credits requires that homes are closed before November 30^th and the State of Georgia $3600 Tax Credit requires that homes are closed before December 1^st.  However, many potential buyers are still waiting on the sidelines because they are afraid they may lose their job.  The HELP program featuring Job Loss Protection is specifically designed for these buyers.” said Prudential Georgia Realty President and CEO Dan Forsman. “The HELP program really provides two important components.  First, the peace of mind from Job Loss Protection will allow many buyers to realize the American dream of owning a home.  Second, the education and personalized counseling available during the first two years will greatly increase the odds of the buyer staying in their home.  Studies show that most loan defaults occur in the first two years.”

The Homeowner Education and Loan Performance program is administered by the Rainy Day Foundation and marketed by becoming part of the Creative Alliances, LLC group.  The HELP program featuring Job Loss Protection is available immediately through certified Prudential Georgia Realty agents.  Sellers may offer the program for their potential buyers.  Trendgraphix reports that 10% of the current homes on the market are selling each month.  That means 90% are not.  Job Loss Protection can help your homes stand out from the competition and give more buyers the confidence to purchase.  Buyers (represented by a certified Prudential agent), may also ask their sellers to include the program as part of their negotiations.  The HELP program costs $500 and may be funded by the seller at closing.  The program applies to primary residences, second homes and single family investments properties. 

Please see a “HELP certified” Prudential Georgia Realty agent for additional details to get started today!

The Case-Shiller Index reports 60 days in arrears so the current index reflects home value estimates for May 2009.  The latest index for metro Atlanta shows a positive increase of .26% from last month.  This is the second increase in a row for metro Atlanta.  So what does this really mean?   First, this is a broad measure of home values for metro Atlanta.  Every local market is different.  Second, this signals that we are likley to be seeing the bottom of values for our market.  Of course, that could change if short sales and foreclosures flood the market too quickly with additional inventory.  Current home values are back to levels last seen in October of 2000.  Your local Prudential Georgia Realty real estate expert can give you the facts in your market.   The following chart shows the index from January 2006 to July 2009. 

2006 - 2009 Seasonal Trend

You can see a pattern of home values increasing over the spring months for the past three years.  This is due to the higher demand for homes in the spring and early summer market.  This year, we expect an “extended summer sales season” due to the expiring federal & state tax credits plus fears of mortgage rate increases over time.  We expect to see positive Case-Shiller Index results for metro Atlanta through the summer months.  In the late fall and winter, we believe the index will start to report negative numbers again.    

The following chart shows the Case-Shiller Index over different periods of time.   The average appreciation historically has been in the 3-5% range.  The chart below shows the impact of the drops in the past few years.   

The future trends for Atlanta real estate are very positive.  Please view of video report at AtlantaRealEstate2009.com for a detailed report on future value trends for Atlanta real estate.  If you have question, please contact us.  We have many community experts that can help you better understand the current home values and trends in your local market.  There is no doubt that right now is a great time to buy real estate in metro Atlanta!

• The latest monthly real estate market facts from Trendgraphix (updated the second week of each month).
• The latest Case-Shiller Index (published the last Tuesday of each month).
• The latest foreclosure information from Equity Depot (publisher of the Atlanta Foreclosure Report), RealtyTrac (leading national provider of foreclosure data), First American Corelogic, FMLS, Georgia MLS and more…   
• The national metrics from NAR (National Association of Realtors), NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) or other trade organizations. 
• Local news and insight from real estate specialists around metro Atlanta.
• Audio clips and videos from local and national market experts.

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Over time, this site will be populated with a tremendous amount of information for consumers, the real estate community and news organizations.  Please contact us if you have content that you would like to post or would like to see something not yet published on our site.