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Case-Shiller Index For May 2010

ATLScoop — Tue, 25 May 2010 15:06:52 +0000

The May Case-Shiller Index was published on Tuesday, May 25th 2010. As always, the index reports on data 60 days in arrears. Therefore, the index reports metro Atlanta home values for March 2010. So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta?

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats. First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market. This index reflects the averages for metro Atlanta. Remember, people do not buy houses in America or even in metro Atlanta. They buy a specific property on a street in a local community. Real estate is local and every market is different. Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market. However, these metrics are a good general indication on what is happening in our market.

Now for the news…. The March index established a new low for Metro Atlanta and shows the 7th drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row. The March index is 103.74 which is 1.81% down from last month. Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – March 2010 Index

The peak of our market was July of 2007 according to the Case-Shiller index. The previous bottom was March of 2009. This new index low is 1.27% below the previous low point. In August of 2009, we had seen 5 months of increasing values and were 5.8% above the March 2009 index. Since then, we have slipped and down 23.98% from the peak of July 2007. The spring selling season has been very active in March and April showing year-to-year increases in pendings of 47% and 28% respectively. Inventory for March was down 17% and April was down 14%. This increased demand and lower inventory will begin to reflect in a higher Case-Shiller Index for April and the spring and summer months. Remember, Case-Shiller reflects closed sales and not pended sales. It takes a few months for the more positive pending sales trends to translate to closings. Therefore, we predict that metro Atlanta home values may have seen the bottom in March of 2010. We expect to see the index improving in the spring and continue with slight gains in the summer. We may see slight declines later this fall and winter but do not expect to test the low point of March 2010. We expect a slow but sure increase in values for 2010 and beyond. Remember, you will not know the bottom of the market until it is passed.

If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index:

Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of .49%

Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of 4.84%

Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 8.37%

Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 11.25%

Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 14.27%

Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 18.39%

Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 22.11%

Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 22.61%

Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 15.41%

Homes values are essentially the same as the spring of 2000 right now. Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet. So where will home values go from here? The key factors that will impact our home values include the following:

Demand From Buyers (We expect to see continued demand through spring and summer months.)

Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability (We expect to see incredibly low mortgage rates for an extended period with increases coming in late 2010 and 2011.)

Supply/ Inventory Levels (We expect inventory levels to remain lower than normal.)

Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures (We expect to see significant numbers of short sales & foreclosures for the next two years. However, we do not expect a flood of foreclosures that drives the overall inventory too high.)

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures. Right now, home affordability is exceptional. We still have the combination of low home prices and the lowest mortgage rates in 50 years. Many wonderful properties are available below their replacement costs. But this scenario will not last forever. Rates will go up over time. Home values will be increasing – slowly but surely. Yes, we will continue to see some ups and downs along the way, but home values are on the rise. In 5 or 10 years, many will look back and regret not buying their dream home when they had the chance!

Check back for our next posts with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!

Case-Shiller Index For March 2010

ATLScoop — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 15:36:45 +0000

The March Case-Shiller Index was published on Tuesday, March 30th 2010. As always, the index reports on data 60 days in arrears. Therefore, the index reports metro Atlanta home values for January 2010. So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta?

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats. First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market. Right now, the heavy volumes in the market remain on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures. The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market. Second, real estate is local and every market is different. Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market.

Now for the news…. The January index shows the 5th drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row. The January index is 107.04 which is 1.45% down from last month. Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – January 2010 Index

The peak of our market was July of 2007 according to the Case-Shiller index. The most recent bottom was March of 2009. In August of 2009, we had seen 5 months of increasing values and were 5.8% above the bottom of March 2009. Since then, we have slipped and are now only 1.87% above the March 2009 bottom and still down 21.57% from the peak of July 2007. We expect to see a slight drop in the February and March indexes. The spring selling season driven by the expiring tax credits in April plus the lower than normal levels of inventory will start driving home values back up this spring. Therefore, we predict that metro Atlanta home values will have seen a bottom for 2010 in February or March and we will see slight gains for the spring and summer months. We may see slight declines later this fall and winter but do not expect to test the lows of March 2009 or February/ March 2010. We expect a slow but sure increase in values for 2010 and beyond. Remember, you will not know the bottom of the market until it is passed. If you are considering buying, do not wait!

If you look at the average annualCase-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index:

Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 3.69%

Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of 1.81

Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 5.45%

Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 8.43%

Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 11.55%

Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 15.79%

Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 19.61%

Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 20.15%

Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 12.72%

Homes values are essentially the same as the spring of 2001 right now. Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet. So where will home values go from here? The key factors that will impact our home value include the following:

Demand From Buyers (We expect to see improving demand through spring driven by the tax credits, great deals and low mortgage rates!)

Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability (We expect to see low mortgage rates for an extended period. Although the mortgage fees on FHA and certain other loans will be increasing this summer.)

Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market (We expect to see significant numbers of short sales & foreclosures for the next two years. That will be the main competition for most properties. You need to know the details and trends to compete.)

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures. It is clearly a great time to buy and we expect many buyers to take full advantage. The expiring tax credits will create a flurry of sales in April. However, great deals and low mortgage rates will keep demand strong for an extended period. Check back for our next posts with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!

Case-Shiller Index – January 2010

ATLScoop — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 03:22:59 +0000

The January Case-Shiller Index was just released. As always, Case-Shiller is published the last Tuesday of the month and reports on data 60 days in arrears. Therefore, the index reports metro Atlanta home values for November 2009. So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta?

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats. First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market. Right now, the heavy volumes in the market remain on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures. The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market. Second, real estate is local and every market is different. Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market.

Now to the news…. The November index shows the 3rd drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row. In a more normal market, you would expect such a seasonal drop. However, the previous $8000 First Time Home Buyer was expiring in November which should have positively impacted these numbers. The new extended and expanded tax credits were not announced until December. The market results for December were significantly down versus November. Therefore, we should expect a more significant drop in home values coming for December. Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – November 2009 Index

If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index:

Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 4.43%

Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of .93%

Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 4.54%

Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 7.51%

Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 10.76%

Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 15.11%

Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 18.62%

Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 19.15%

Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 11.63%

Homes values are essentially the same as June of 2001 right now. Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet. So where will home values go from here? The key factors that will impact our home value include the following:

Demand From Buyers (We expect to see improving demand through spring driven by the tax credits, great deals and low mortgage rates!)

Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability

Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market (See the blog post on short sales & foreclosures – http://atlrealestatescoop.com/changing-trends-foreclosures-short-sales/)

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures. It is clearly a great time to buy and we expect many buyers to take full advantage. We will continue to keep you informed with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!