The July Case-Shiller Index was published on Tuesday, July 27th 2010.  As always, the index reports on data 60 days in arrears.  Therefore, the index reports Metro Atlanta home values for May 2010.  So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta? 

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats.  First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market.  This index reflects the averages for metro Atlanta.  Remember, people do not buy houses in America or even in metro Atlanta.  They buy a specific property on a street in a local community.  Real estate is local and every market is different.  Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market.  However, these metrics are a good general indication on what is happening in our market.   

Now for the news….  The May index shows positive gains for the 2nd month in a row.  This March established a new low for Metro Atlanta and showed the 7th drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row.  The May index is 107.82 which is 2.02% up from last month and 2.62% up from the March low.  Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta – May 2010

The peak of our market was July of 2007 according to the Case-Shiller index.  The bottom was March of 2010.   Since July of 2007, our homes values have slipped 20.98% – which is an improvement from previous lower months.  The spring selling season was very active in March and April  showing year-to-year increases in pendings of 47% and 28% respectively.  Inventory remains down from last year but is increasing from the previous months of March & April.  Remember, Case-Shiller reflects closed sales and not pended sales.  We expect to see the index continue to show slight gains over the summer motnhs and then begin to trail off in the fall and winter months.  We do not expect to test the low point of March 2010.  Remember, you will not know the bottom of the market until it is already passed.  Our conclusion is that we are passed the bottom of homes values for Metro Atlanta but do not expect a robust recovery.  We expect to see home values slowly increase over time with a few seasonal bumps along the way.     

If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index: 

• Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 4.44%
• Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of 1.09%
• Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 4.76%
• Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 7.76%
• Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 10.90%
• Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 1518%
• Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 19.05%
• Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 19.57%
• Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 12.09%

Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet.  So where will home values go from here?  The key factors that will impact our home values include the following: 

1. Demand From Buyers (We expect to see continued demand through spring and summer months.)
2. Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability (We expect to see incredibly low mortgage rates for an extended period with increases coming in late 2010 and 2011.)     
3. Supply/ Inventory Levels (We expect inventory levels to remain lower than normal.)
4. Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures (We expect to see significant numbers of short sales & foreclosures for the next two years.  However, we do not expect a flood of foreclosures that drives the overall inventory too high.)  

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures.  Right now, home affordability is exceptional.  We still have the combination of low home prices and the lowest mortgage rates in 50 years.  Many wonderful properties are available below their replacement costs.  But this scenario will not last forever.  Rates will go up over time.  Home values will be increasing – slowly but surely.  Yes, we will continue to see some ups and downs along the way, but home values are on the rise.  In 5 or 10 years, many will look back and regret not buying their dream home when they had the chance!     

Check back for our next posts with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!

The April Case-Shiller Index was published on Tuesday, April 27th 2010.  As always, the index reports on data 60 days in arrears.  Therefore, the index reports metro Atlanta home values for February 2010.  So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta? 

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats.  First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market.  This index reflects the averages for metro Atlanta.  Remember, people do not buy houses in America or even in metro Atlanta.  They buy a specific property on a street in a local community.  Real estate is local and every market is different.  Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market.  However, these metrics are a good general indication on what is happening in our market.   

Now for the news….  The February index shows the 6th drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row.  The January index is 105.66 which is 1.29% down from last month.  Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – February 2010 Index

The peak of our market was July of 2007 according to the Case-Shiller index.  The most recent bottom was March of 2009.  In August of 2009, we had seen 5 months of increasing values and were 5.8% above the bottom of March 2009.  Since then, we have slipped and are now only .56% above the March 2009 bottom and still down 22.58% from the peak of July 2007.  We expected to see a slight drop in the February index and may see an additional drop in March.  The spring selling season is very active in March and April with low inventory and significantly increased demand.  This will reflect in a higher Case-Shiller Index as the increases in pending translate to closings.  Therefore, we predict that metro Atlanta home values will probably see a bottom for 2010 in March.  We expect to see positive gains in the spring and continue with slight gains in the summer.  We may see slight declines later this fall and winter but do not expect to test the low point of March 2010.  We expect a slow but sure increase in values for 2010 and beyond.  Remember, you will not know the bottom of the market until it is passed.  

If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index: 

• Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 2.35%
• Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of 3.08
• Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 6.67%
• Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 9.61%
• Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 12.69%
• Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 16.88%
• Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 20.67%
• Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 21.18%
• Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 13.85%

Homes values are essentially the same as the spring of 2001 right now.  Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet.  So where will home values go from here?  The key factors that will impact our home values include the following: 

1. Demand From Buyers (We expect to see improving demand through spring and summer months.)
2. Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability (We expect to see low mortgage rates for an extended period with increases coming in late 2010 and 2011.)     
3. Supply/ Inventory Levels (We expect inventory levels to remain lower than normal.)
4. Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures (We expect to see significant numbers of short sales & foreclosures for the next two years.  However, we do not expect a flood of foreclosures that drives the overall inventory too high.)  

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures.  Right now, home affordability is exceptional.  We still have the combination of low home prices and low mortgage rates.  Many wonderful properties are available below their replacement costs.  This scenario will not last forever.  Rates will go up over time.  Home values will be increasing – slowly but surely.  Yes, we will continue to see some ups and downs along the way, but home values are on the rise.  In 5 or 10 years, many will look back and regret not buying their dream home when they had the chance!     

Check back for our next posts with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!

The February Case-Shiller Index was published on February 28, 2010.  As always, the index reports on data 60 days in arrears.  Therefore, the index reports metro Atlanta home values for December 2009.  So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta? 

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats.  First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market.  Right now, the heavy volumes in the market remain on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures.  The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market.  Second, real estate is local and every market is different.  Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market. 

Now for the news….  The December index shows the 4th drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row.  The new extended and expanded tax credits were not announced until December.  Therefore, many transactions that would have normally closed in December were closed earlier in November to ensure the buyer received the tax credit.  As a result, we expected a more significant drop in home values coming for December.   Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – December 2009 Index

The peak of our market was July of 2007 according to the Case-Shiller index.  The most recent bottom was March of 2009.  In August of 2009, we had seen 5 months of increasing values and were 5.8% above the bottom of March 2009.  Since the, we have slipped and are now 3.28% above the March bottom and still down 19.18% from the peak of July 2007.  We would expect to see some additional drops in the January and February index but do not expect to drop below the March 2009 levels.  The early spring season driven by the expiring tax credits in April will likely drive home values back up prior to the normal seasonal patterns. 

If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index: 

• Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 4.45%
• Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of .92%
• Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 4.53%
• Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 7.50%
• Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 10.75%
• Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 15.10%
• Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 18.62%
• Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 19.14%
• Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 11.62%

Homes values are essentially the same as the summer of 2001 right now.  Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet.  So where will home values go from here?  The key factors that will impact our home value include the following: 

1. Demand From Buyers (We expect to see improving demand through spring driven by the tax credits, great deals and low mortgage rates!)
2. Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability     
3. Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market  (See the blog post on short sales & foreclosures – http://atlrealestatescoop.com/changing-trends-foreclosures-short-sales/)

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures.  It is clearly a great time to buy and we expect many buyers to take full advantage.  We will continue to keep you informed with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!

The January Case-Shiller Index was just released.   As always, Case-Shiller is published the last Tuesday of the month and reports on data 60 days in arrears.  Therefore, the index reports metro Atlanta home values for November 2009.  So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta? 

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats.  First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market.  Right now, the heavy volumes in the market remain on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures.  The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market.  Second, real estate is local and every market is different.  Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market. 

Now to the news….  The November index shows the 3rd drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row.  In a more normal market, you would expect such a seasonal drop.  However, the previous $8000 First Time Home Buyer was expiring in November which should have positively impacted these numbers.  The new extended and expanded tax credits were not announced until December.  The market results for December were significantly down versus November.  Therefore, we should expect a more significant drop in home values coming for December.   Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – November 2009 Index

The peak of our market was July of 2007 according to the Case-Shiller index.  The most recent bottom was March of 2009.  In August of 2009, we had seen 5 months of increasing values and were 5.8% above the bottom of March 2009.  Since the, we have slipped and are now 4.02% above the March bottom and still down 18.6% from the peak of July 2007.  We would expect to see some additional drops in the December and January reports but do not expect to drop below the March 2009 levels.  The early spring season driven by the expiring tax credits in April will likely drive home values back up prior to the normal seasonal patterns. 

If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index: 

• Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 4.43%
• Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of .93%
• Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 4.54%
• Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 7.51%
• Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 10.76%
• Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 15.11%
• Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 18.62%
• Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 19.15%
• Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 11.63%

Homes values are essentially the same as June of 2001 right now.  Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet.  So where will home values go from here?  The key factors that will impact our home value include the following: 

1. Demand From Buyers (We expect to see improving demand through spring driven by the tax credits, great deals and low mortgage rates!)
2. Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability     
3. Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market  (See the blog post on short sales & foreclosures – http://atlrealestatescoop.com/changing-trends-foreclosures-short-sales/)

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures.  It is clearly a great time to buy and we expect many buyers to take full advantage.  We will continue to keep you informed with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats.  First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market.  Right now, the heavy volumes in the market are on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures.  The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market.  Second, real estate is local and every market is different.  Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market. 

Now to the news….  The July index shows the 5th positive gain in a row for metro Atlanta home values.  If you look at the numbers, you will see the % gains this month are less than the previous few months – signaling a slowing of momentum.  Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.

Case Shiller Index – Metro Atlanta – August 2009 Index

This means that home values have actually increased from March 2009 by 5.8%.  That is good news!  The peak of the index was July 2007 and the bottom of the index was March of 2009.   But remember….  home values are still down from their peaks and sellers must be realistic about pricing.  Home values are still down 17.19% from the peak of July 2007.  If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index: 

• Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 3.76%
• Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of 1.57%
• Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 5.16%
• Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 8.10%
• Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 11.33%
• Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 15.65%
• Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 19.15%
• Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 19.67%
• Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 12.20%

Homes values are essentially the same as November 2001 right now.  Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet.  So where will home values go from here?  The key factors that will impact our home value include the following: 

1. Demand From Buyers (We need to see ” extension and expansion” of the Housing Tax Credit!)
2. Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability     
3. Pace of Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market  (See latest blog post on short sales & foreclosures – http://atlrealestatescoop.com/changing-trends-foreclosures-short-sales/)

You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures.  The status of the federal housing tax credit will also have an impact on demand from buyers.  We will continue to keep you informed with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!  Stay tuned….  

Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats.  First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market.  Right now, the heavy volumes in the market are on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures.  The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market.  Second, real estate is local and every market is different.  Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market. 

Now to the news….  The July index shows the 4th positive gain in a row for metro Atlanta home values.  If you look at the number, you will see the % gains every month are growing.  Click on the link below to see the details on the spreadsheet.

Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – July 2009 Index

 This means that home values have actually increased from March 2009 by 4.7%.  That is good news!  The peak of the index was July 2007 and the bottom of the index was March of 2009.  Since March, Trendgraphix reports pending sales increases for three months in a row with slight dips in July and August.  This is being driven by the expiring tax credits and the great buying opportunities in the market.   But remember….  home values are still down from their peaks and sellers must be realistic about pricing.  Home values are still down 19.35% from the peak of July 2007.  If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index: 

• Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 3.2%
• Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of 2.02%
• Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 5.6%
• Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 8.54%
• Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 11.75%
• Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 16.05%
• Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 19.53%
• Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 20.05%
• Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 12.6 %

Homes values are essentially the same as the fall of 2000 right now.  Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there quite yet.  So where will home values go from here?  We believe that the “extended summer selling season” will continue through October Case-Shiller results.  We will start to see home values drop slightly in the late fall and winter months.  We expect next spring and summer to be better than the spring and summer markets of 2009.  If Congress sweetens the pot with a broader tax credit, we will see significantly more positive momentum in the market.  The keys to watch will be the following:

1. Extension and/or Expanding of Federal Housing Tax Credits
2. Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability     
3. Pace of Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market

We will be posting a new article in the next few days that will address the growing trend of short sales.  This is going to be one of the significant trends to watch that will impact our home values.  Stay tuned….  

The Case-Shiller Index reports 60 days in arrears so the current index reflects home value estimates for May 2009.  The latest index for metro Atlanta shows a positive increase of .26% from last month.  This is the second increase in a row for metro Atlanta.  So what does this really mean?   First, this is a broad measure of home values for metro Atlanta.  Every local market is different.  Second, this signals that we are likley to be seeing the bottom of values for our market.  Of course, that could change if short sales and foreclosures flood the market too quickly with additional inventory.  Current home values are back to levels last seen in October of 2000.  Your local Prudential Georgia Realty real estate expert can give you the facts in your market.   The following chart shows the index from January 2006 to July 2009. 

2006 - 2009 Seasonal Trend

You can see a pattern of home values increasing over the spring months for the past three years.  This is due to the higher demand for homes in the spring and early summer market.  This year, we expect an “extended summer sales season” due to the expiring federal & state tax credits plus fears of mortgage rate increases over time.  We expect to see positive Case-Shiller Index results for metro Atlanta through the summer months.  In the late fall and winter, we believe the index will start to report negative numbers again.    

The following chart shows the Case-Shiller Index over different periods of time.   The average appreciation historically has been in the 3-5% range.  The chart below shows the impact of the drops in the past few years.   

The future trends for Atlanta real estate are very positive.  Please view of video report at AtlantaRealEstate2009.com for a detailed report on future value trends for Atlanta real estate.  If you have question, please contact us.  We have many community experts that can help you better understand the current home values and trends in your local market.  There is no doubt that right now is a great time to buy real estate in metro Atlanta!