January 28th, 2010
The January Case-Shiller Index was just released. As always, Case-Shiller is published the last Tuesday of the month and reports on data 60 days in arrears. Therefore, the index reports metro Atlanta home values for November 2009. So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta?
Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats. First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market. Right now, the heavy volumes in the market remain on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures. The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market. Second, real estate is local and every market is different. Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market.
Now to the news…. The November index shows the 3rd drop in a row after 5 positive months in a row. In a more normal market, you would expect such a seasonal drop. However, the previous $8000 First Time Home Buyer was expiring in November which should have positively impacted these numbers. The new extended and expanded tax credits were not announced until December. The market results for December were significantly down versus November. Therefore, we should expect a more significant drop in home values coming for December. Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.
Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – November 2009 Index
The peak of our market was July of 2007 according to the Case-Shiller index. The most recent bottom was March of 2009. In August of 2009, we had seen 5 months of increasing values and were 5.8% above the bottom of March 2009. Since the, we have slipped and are now 4.02% above the March bottom and still down 18.6% from the peak of July 2007. We would expect to see some additional drops in the December and January reports but do not expect to drop below the March 2009 levels. The early spring season driven by the expiring tax credits in April will likely drive home values back up prior to the normal seasonal patterns.
If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index:
-
Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 4.43%
-
Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of .93%
-
Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 4.54%
-
Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 7.51%
-
Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 10.76%
-
Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 15.11%
-
Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 18.62%
-
Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 19.15%
-
Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 11.63%
Homes values are essentially the same as June of 2001 right now. Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet. So where will home values go from here? The key factors that will impact our home value include the following:
- Demand From Buyers (We expect to see improving demand through spring driven by the tax credits, great deals and low mortgage rates!)
- Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability
- Competition from Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market (See the blog post on short sales & foreclosures – http://atlrealestatescoop.com/changing-trends-foreclosures-short-sales/)
You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures. It is clearly a great time to buy and we expect many buyers to take full advantage. We will continue to keep you informed with the latest facts and insight that can make you money!
By ATLScoop | No Comments » |
Tags: Atlanta foreclosures, Atlanta new homes, Atlanta real estate, atlanta real estate market report, Case-Shiller Index Atlanta, Prudential Georgia Realty
Posted in Case-Shiller Index, Uncategorized |
December 23rd, 2009
The facts continue to show that first-time home buyers are getting more active in the national and local real estate market. The National Association of Realtors reports that 51% of purchases in November were first-time buyers. Remember, the definition of a first-time home buyer is ”a buyer who has not owned a primary residence in the last three years.”
Here in metro Atlanta, the story is similar. SmartNumbers reports that 43% of local buyers in November were first-time buyers. Their data shows that first-time buyers were 37% of the market prior to 2003. In 2003, we saw that new home prices began escalating and essentially started pricing these buyers out of the market. Now that prices have dropped, these buyers are able to afford properties that were previously unrealistic for them. In the 3rd quarter of 2009, we saw first-time buyers return to historically normal levels. Of course, the $8,000 Tax Credit and low mortgage rates are also driving this behavior. In November, we saw the numbers jump to 43% and would expect that momentum to continue to the spring market.
Atlanta 1st Time Buyers Return To Market!
One of the biggest obstacles for many first-time home buyers is the fear of losing their job. They know that there are fabulous properties available, low mortgage rates and tax incentives. But they are worried about losing their job and then losing their new home. Prudential Georgia Realty is pleased to offer Job Loss Protection which provides a “nest egg” of $10,800 to cover 6 monthly payments of $1,800 in the event of an involumtary job loss. Conatct your local Prudential Georgia Realty agent for details – and get started now! These low rates and exceptional properties will not be there forever. The clock is ticking on the $8,000 Tax Credit which expires on April 30th 2010. See our video channel for details of the Job Loss Protection program, Tax Credits plus other local real estate news – at www.AtlantaRealEstateChannel.com.
By ATLScoop | No Comments » |
Tags: Atlanta new homes, atlanta real estate agents, first-time home buyers, Prudential Georgia Realty
Posted in Local Market Reports |
October 27th, 2009
The latest Case-Shiller Index was published today. As always, Case-Shiller is published the last Tuesday of the month and reports on data 60 days in arrears. So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home values in metro Atlanta?
Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats. First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market. Right now, the heavy volumes in the market are on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures. The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market. Second, real estate is local and every market is different. Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market.
Now to the news…. The July index shows the 5th positive gain in a row for metro Atlanta home values. If you look at the numbers, you will see the % gains this month are less than the previous few months – signaling a slowing of momentum. Click on the link below to open the Excel spreadsheet that shows the details of the latest index.
Case Shiller Index – Metro Atlanta – August 2009 Index
This means that home values have actually increased from March 2009 by 5.8%. That is good news! The peak of the index was July 2007 and the bottom of the index was March of 2009. But remember…. home values are still down from their peaks and sellers must be realistic about pricing. Home values are still down 17.19% from the peak of July 2007. If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index:
-
Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 3.76%
-
Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of 1.57%
-
Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 5.16%
-
Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 8.10%
-
Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 11.33%
-
Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 15.65%
-
Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 19.15%
-
Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 19.67%
-
Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 12.20%
Homes values are essentially the same as November 2001 right now. Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there yet. So where will home values go from here? The key factors that will impact our home value include the following:
- Demand From Buyers (We need to see ” extension and expansion” of the Housing Tax Credit!)
- Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability
- Pace of Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market (See latest blog post on short sales & foreclosures – http://atlrealestatescoop.com/changing-trends-foreclosures-short-sales/)
You and your agent should be carefully watching the trends for short sales and foreclosures. The status of the federal housing tax credit will also have an impact on demand from buyers. We will continue to keep you informed with the latest facts and insight that can make you money! Stay tuned….
By ATLScoop | No Comments » |
Tags: Atlanta foreclosures, Atlanta homes values, Atlanta new homes, Atlanta real estate, Atlanta short sales, Case-Shiller Index Atlanta, Prudential Georgia Realty
Posted in Case-Shiller Index |
October 26th, 2009
The trends for new “notices of foreclosure” or pre-foreclosures continue to be significant for the metro Atlanta market. Equity Depot reports that pre-foreclosures have been in the 10,000 – 12,000 range each month for metro Atlanta since mid summer. This is up from the 7,000 - 8,000 range last fall. These increases are driven by unemployment, adjustable mortgages resetting to higher levels and general economic conditions. One would expect that the inventory levels of bank-owned properties would be significantly higher… but that is not the case. Rick Sharga, SVP Marketing at RealtyTrac, wrote a recent blog post and estimated that there are at least 450,000 to 500,000 missing REO properties or “shadow inventory” as it is now known in the industry. So where are these missing REOs or bank-owned properties?
Click the chart image below to view the data for the big 4 counties of metro Atlanta – Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb and Gwinnett. Contact us if you are interested in see the data for each individual county. This chart shows some interesting facts:
-
Pre-foreclosures are still very high (yellow bar)
-
Properties that become foreclosed or bank-owned are significantly lower (red bar)
-
Sales of bank-owned properties is higher than the rate of new properties becoming bank-owned (purple bar)
-
Market sales (resales, new homes, land) are significantly smaller than the number of pre-foreclosures (green bar)
-
The percentage of REOs or bank-owned properties compared to total sales is shrinking in recent months (green line).
The case is clear – REO listing inventory is shrinking. We also know this to be true from the “word on the streets” since many REO specialists do not have the listing inventory volumes they has back in the spring and early summer months. There are two root causes for this situation. One is that more banks are supporting and promoting short sales. The second is that banks are simply sitting on inventory and not bringing properties to the market for sale. Short sales make sense since it costs the bank less money to process. But why would a bank sit on inventory and not bring to market for sale? Some speculate that banks are holding assets to defer losses. Others believe that banks are using these assets to negotiate with the government to establish a “toxic bank” similar to the model used for the RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation). Only time will tell the real reasons.
So what does this mean to sellers or buyers in metro Atlanta?
For sellers, it means that you and your agent need to carefully watch the trends for future listing inventory in your local area. This includes notices of foreclosure or pre-foreclosures that will become short sales or bank-owned properties. This also includes the “shadow inventory” that banks are holding. If the banks decide to dump the inventory onto the market too fast, it will have a negative impact on market values. Yet another category to watch includes the “sideline inventory” of sellers that are expected to come into the market if values slightly improve. Right now our inventory levels are down 28% from last year. Pended sales are running at about the same pace as last year. For now, we are consuming our inventory. If that remains the case, property values will remain stable and may even pick up slightly. It is all about the balance for buyers and the current listing inventory. Prudential Georgia Realty created our award-winning Advanced Property Marketing System specifically for these types of market conditions. As the market changes, we will see the trends first and can help you optimize your value proposition to stand out from your competition.
For buyers, there are still tremendous deals in our market. There are fabulous resales, builder short sales, residential short sales and bank-owned properties. Many of these are priced below their replacement costs. It may be wise to work with a specialist who understands both the short sale and REO markets to evaluate the best opportunities. Prudential Georgia Realty has hundreds of trained and certified specialists that can help in your local area. These specialists have foreclosure searches powered by RealtyTrac plus our new custom Short Sale search. PGR is the only brokerage that provides these powerful tools to our agents.
If you want THE EDGE in the market, please contact your Prudential Georgia Realty agent to get started today!
By ATLScoop | 2 Comments » |
Tags: Atlanta foreclosures, Atlanta homes values, Atlanta real estate, Atlanta short sales, Prudential Georgia Realty
Posted in Atlanta Foreclosures, Local Market Reports |
October 1st, 2009
The latest Case-Shiller Index was published on Tuesday. As always, Case-Shiller is published the last Tuesday of the month and reports on data 60 days in arrears. So what does the latest index show and what does that mean for home value in metro Atlanta?
Before we provide the answer, we want to make two caveats. First, the Case-Shiller index of home values is very different from average sale prices which reflect the average prices of what is being sold in the market. Right now, the heavy volumes in the market are on the lower end for 1st time home buyers and short sales/ foreclosures. The luxury market is slower so that makes the average sales price lower than a normal market. Second, real estate is local and every market is different. Your local agent expert can help you understand the specific metrics in your local market.
Now to the news…. The July index shows the 4th positive gain in a row for metro Atlanta home values. If you look at the number, you will see the % gains every month are growing. Click on the link below to see the details on the spreadsheet.
Case Shiller Index – Atlanta – July 2009 Index
This means that home values have actually increased from March 2009 by 4.7%. That is good news! The peak of the index was July 2007 and the bottom of the index was March of 2009. Since March, Trendgraphix reports pending sales increases for three months in a row with slight dips in July and August. This is being driven by the expiring tax credits and the great buying opportunities in the market. But remember…. home values are still down from their peaks and sellers must be realistic about pricing. Home values are still down 19.35% from the peak of July 2007. If you look at the average annual Case-Shiller index for each year, here is how homes purchased in recent years would compare to the current index:
-
Homes Bought in 2000 – Gain of 3.2%
-
Homes Bought in 2001 – Loss of 2.02%
-
Homes Bought in 2002 – Loss of 5.6%
-
Homes Bought in 2003 – Loss of 8.54%
-
Homes Bought in 2004 – Loss of 11.75%
-
Homes Bought in 2005 – Loss of 16.05%
-
Homes Bought in 2006 – Loss of 19.53%
-
Homes Bought in 2007 – Loss of 20.05%
-
Homes Bought in 2008 – Loss of 12.6 %
Homes values are essentially the same as the fall of 2000 right now. Yes, we are slowly climbing our way out of this unprecedented housing crisis – but we are not there quite yet. So where will home values go from here? We believe that the “extended summer selling season” will continue through October Case-Shiller results. We will start to see home values drop slightly in the late fall and winter months. We expect next spring and summer to be better than the spring and summer markets of 2009. If Congress sweetens the pot with a broader tax credit, we will see significantly more positive momentum in the market. The keys to watch will be the following:
- Extension and/or Expanding of Federal Housing Tax Credits
- Mortgage Rates/ Credit Availability
- Pace of Short Sales/ Foreclosures Entering the Market
We will be posting a new article in the next few days that will address the growing trend of short sales. This is going to be one of the significant trends to watch that will impact our home values. Stay tuned….
By ATLScoop | No Comments » |
Tags: Atlanta foreclosures, Atlanta new homes, Atlanta real estate, Atlanta short sales, Case-Shiller Index Atlanta, Prudential Georgia Realty
Posted in Case-Shiller Index |
September 16th, 2009
Consumers are often confused by the process used by appraisers. The podcast included in this post includes an interview with Scott Murphy of D.S. Murphy & Associates. Scott is one of the most respected appraisers in the industry. He has personally performed over 17,000 appraisals and was appointed to the Georgia Real Estate Appraisers Board.
Scott estimates that Atlanta home values have dropped by 10-25% since the peak in July of 2007 depending upon your local area. As always, real estate is local and every market is different. Scott suggests that many of our local markets are now stabilizing and showing some signs of recovery. However, that may not be reflecting in the appraisals used by lending servicers.
Scott discusses big changes with the new HVCC process and the new 1004MC form. He also makes specific recommendations for sellers and real estate agents to impact the process.
Prudential Georgia Realty agents are receiving specific training on this process and using the right information tools for CMAs (competitve market analysis) and the 1004MC forms.
Audio Podcast Available Below
Listen to the podcast from this article
Download audio file
By ATLScoop | No Comments » |
Tags: Atlanta foreclosures, Atlanta homes values, Atlanta real estate, D.S. Murphy & Associates, Prudential Georgia Realty, Scott Murphy
Posted in Local Market Reports, Podcasts |
August 21st, 2009
Prudential Georgia Realty is pleased to announce that Dale Modica and Anne Miller have joined as Managing Broker and Associate Broker for our MidTown office. Dale and Anne were formerly the leadership team for the InTown Branch of Harry Norman Realtors.
Dale Modica has more than 21 years experience as a Realtor® in the in-town Atlanta area. Before joining Harry Norman, Realtors in 1997, he was the top-producing sales associate for another area broker for 13 years. Dale is a Life Member of the Atlanta Board of Realtors Million Dollar Club and in 1997 received the Atlanta Board of Realtors’ Phoenix Award.
Anne Miller is a lifelong Atlanta resident, and a product of the Atlanta public school system – attending Rock Springs Elementary on Lindbergh Drive, D.F. McClatchey Elementary on Loridans Drive and W.F. Dykes High School on Jett Road before attending Georgia State University. Anne has been in real estate for 21 years and was the associate broker of the Intown office since 2003.
“Prudential is excited about the opportunity to expand our presence in the MidTown, InTown and Buckhead markets,” said Dan Forsman, President & CEO of Prudential Georgia Realty. “Our company has made significant gains in marketshare over the past two years. Our innovations in property marketing, agent skills development and agent support are showing in real results for our associates. We are very pleased to be adding quality leadership like Dale and Anne to our team.”
You may contact Dale or Anne at dale.modica@prudentialga.com or anne.miller@prudentialga.com.
By ATLScoop | 1 Comment » |
Tags: Anne Miller, Atlanta real estate, Buckhead real estate, Dale Modica, Harry Norman Realtors, Intown real estate, Midtown real estate, Prudential Georgia Realty
Posted in Prudential Georgia News |
August 12th, 2009
Trendgraphix has posted the latest results through July 2009.
- For all FMLS counties, the report shows 4481 pending versus 4853 last month and 4410 in July of 2008. Therefore, pending sales are up on a year-to-year basis but down from last month.
- Closed sales were 3734 versus 4413 last month and 4378 in July of 2008. Therefore, actual closed sales are down on a year-to-year basis and down from last month. Closed sales have been running 10-20% less than pending sales in the last 4 months. This is due to the longer timeframes for closing short sales & foreclosures which represent over 50% of the transactions in the market. The new Truth in Lending disclosure rules will also have an impact on closing timeframes. See our post and audio podcast for details.
- Inventory for all FMLS counties continues to drop to 42,521 homes for sale. Inventory is down 3% from last month and down 35% from July of 2008. We expect to see inventories rise as more short sales and foreclosures come on the market in the next few months.
- Equity Depot announced 14,000 new “notices of foreclosure” for the September auction. Last fall, these pre-foreclosure notices were running aroun 7,000-8,000 per month. In August, there were 12,000 and July 16,000 pre-foreclosure notices.
Click Here To View The Trendgraphix Market Summary Chart
If you have additional questions about the local real estate market, please contact your Prudential Georgia Realty agent. They have access to many market reporting tools plus foreclosure information, short sale information, tax records, liens, mortgage balances and more. You may also contact us directly by submitting a question below.
By ATLScoop | No Comments » |
Tags: Atlanta foreclosures, Atlanta homes values, Atlanta new homes, Atlanta real estate, atlanta real estate market report, Prudential Georgia Realty
Posted in Local Market Reports, Trendgraphix |
August 5th, 2009
New rules for the Truth in Lending Disclosures associated with all resident real estate mortgages could dramatically impact the timeframes for closings. These changes are part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 and are effective beginning July 30th, 2009. Real estate agents must be aware of these changes and properly advise their buyers and sellers. This is an excellent example of the value that a skilled real estate agent can deliver for their clients. The consequences of these new rules could cost consumers hundreds or even thousand of dollars. Prudential Georgia Realty agents have received special training and are well-prepared to advise their clients in negotiating successfully in this new environment. We have prepared special contract stipulations and provide ongoing updates as additional changes are announced.
This audio podcast provides a detailed review of the new changes and some of the considerations for buyers and sellers.
Just Click on the Audio Podcast to hear the Interview with Melissa Hancock from SunTrust Mortgage
We have also attached a flyer that gives a brief summary of the new changes. If you have additional questions, please contact your Prudential Georgia Realty agent or contact us by leaving a reply at the end of this post.
Click This Link To Download The Informational Flyer
Audio Podcast Available Below
Listen to the podcast from this article
Download audio file
By ATLScoop | 2 Comments » |
Tags: Atlanta foreclosures, Atlanta homes, Atlanta new homes, Atlanta real estate, atlanta real estate agents, Prudential Georgia Realty
Posted in Local Market Reports, Podcasts |
July 30th, 2009
Prudential Georgia Realty has introduced the first Job Loss Protection program for real estate to metro Atlanta home buyers and sellers. The HELP Program (Homeowner Education and Loan Protection) is administered by the Rainy Day Foundation and includes up to 6 monthly payments of $1800 over a 24-month coverage period. That translates to $10,800 of protection in the event of an involuntary job loss. This program is only available from certified Prudential Georgia Realty agents. Please view our video at GetJobLossProtection.com.
“The unemployment rate in metro Atlanta is 10.7% and expected to remain in double digits for an extended period. Everyone knows that it is a fabulous time to buy Atlanta real estate right now. Prices are at or near bottom, mortgage rates are still historically low and the selection of properties is unprecedented. The $8000 1st Time Home Buyer Tax Credits requires that homes are closed before November 30th and the State of Georgia $3600 Tax Credit requires that homes are closed before December 1st. However, many potential buyers are still waiting on the sidelines because they are afraid they may lose their job. The HELP program featuring Job Loss Protection is specifically designed for these buyers.” said Prudential Georgia Realty President and CEO Dan Forsman. “The HELP program really provides two important components. First, the peace of mind from Job Loss Protection will allow many buyers to realize the American dream of owning a home. Second, the education and personalized counseling available during the first two years will greatly increase the odds of the buyer staying in their home. Studies show that most loan defaults occur in the first two years.”
The Homeowner Education and Loan Performance program is administered by the Rainy Day Foundation and marketed by becoming part of the Creative Alliances, LLC group. The HELP program featuring Job Loss Protection is available immediately through certified Prudential Georgia Realty agents. Sellers may offer the program for their potential buyers. Trendgraphix reports that 10% of the current homes on the market are selling each month. That means 90% are not. Job Loss Protection can help your homes stand out from the competition and give more buyers the confidence to purchase. Buyers (represented by a certified Prudential agent), may also ask their sellers to include the program as part of their negotiations. The HELP program costs $500 and may be funded by the seller at closing. The program applies to primary residences, second homes and single family investments properties.
Please see a “HELP certified” Prudential Georgia Realty agent for additional details to get started today!
By ATLScoop | No Comments » |
Tags: Atlanta foreclosures, Atlanta homes, Atlanta new homes, Atlanta real estate, Job Loss Protection
Posted in Job Loss Protection |
